국내 재생에너지 수요 결정요인 분석 : 문헌 고찰 및 성장모형 적용을 중심으로

Expansion of renewable energy supply is one of the important strategies for achieving carbon neutrality within the energy sector. It is essential to forecast the demand for renewable energy and evaluate the validity of the supply goals from the perspective of establishing national energy policies. In this context, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the demand for domestic renewable energy through literature research and innovation diffusion models. Taken together, energy demand in a region was mainly analyzed through economic variables, but it is confirmed that relatively more diverse factors such as economy, environment, policy, and energy security affect renewable energy demand. Next, factors affecting domestic renewable energy demand were analyzed using an expanded logistic growth model.The influencing factors identified in previous related studies, "income", "oil price", "carbon emission", "energy import dependence", and "policy", were combined and used as independent variables in the model. According to the analysis, the model using "oil price" and "carbon emission" as independent variables is the most suitable model for estimating domestic renewable energy demand during the period 2012-2020. In particular, unlike previous perceptions, "oil prices" were found to have a negative (-) effect on domestic renewable energy demand during the period. Even if there is a decline in international oil prices, it implies that it will not have a significant impact on the trend of expanding renewable energy supply. On the other hand, it was found that "carbon emissions" had a positive (+) effect on the demand for renewable energy due to the increase in society"s interest in the environment. In the future, the factors influencing domestic renewable energy demand should be assessed across various time periods and using different models, and relevant policies should be developed based on these findings.