국내 태양광 및 풍력발전 보급 양상 분석 및 전망: 혁신확산 모형을 중심으로

The role of renewable energy in the energy sector is becoming increasingly important. In the case of Korea, unlike the challenging mid- to long-term supply goal, the dissemination of renewable energy is still lower than expectation. This study analyzes the dissemination patterns of renewable energy in the domestic power sector, especially solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, and examines whether the supply target in the national plan can be achieved. Compound annual growth rate, trend analysis, logistic growth model, and Bass diffusion model were applied and analyzed based on the annual cumulative capacity data. Analysis results show that the Bass diffusion model was the best in explaining the expansion of solar photovoltaic and wind power generation among the models. It is also expected that solar power will achieve the supply target of major national plans, while wind power will not. There is a need to further revitalize policies related to wind power generation in the future.