기온변수를 이용한 제주지역의 전력수요함수 추정

quarterly data of average temperature, electricity price, electricity demand, and GRDP in Jeju over the period 2000 to 2015. Lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method had been applied as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function and add seasonal dummy-variable. he results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.72 and 0.94, respectively. The relationship between temperature and electricity demand in Jeju is U-shape relationship as many references. And the threshold temperature of electricity demand is about 12.9℃. Also long-run price- and income-elasticities of electricity demand are estimated to be –0.59 and 0.91, respectively. All of results of price- and income-elasticities of electricity demand are statistically significant at the 1% level. The electricity demand in Jeju is in-elastic with regard to price and income changes according to results of this study. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model with temperature variables than conventional model without temperature variables.