기후변화와 수리구조물의 영향을 고려한 금강유역의 미래 수문순환특성 변화 분석

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on future hydrological cycle in theGeum river basin. The rainfall-runoff model was built up using Soil and Water Assessment tool and the three weirs were input to themodel as reservoir factor. The nine weather data series consisted by the three climate change scenarios and the three climate modelswere used as input data sets of the model. The spatio-temporal change of the hydrological cycle characteristics was explored in thethree future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) on the basis of the historical period (1980-2009). As a result, the trendsshowed the increase of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff and the decrease of snowmelt and soil water content. The runoffand its uncertainty increased in the mid-term and long-term from the estimated result. Both of the flood and drought risk was predictedto increase due to the increased runoff in wet season and the decreased runoff in dry season. Especially drought damage will bethe most serious in the future.