Abstract
There has been a very serious drought since June 2015 in Korea. This study seeks to quantify the ongoing water deficit in the first half of 2016 in the Geum river basin, which has been the most effected by severe drought in Korea. Weather time series were generated from the climate forecast results of the GFDL GCM that is a part of IRI Monthly Multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system. Natural discharge was estimated in 14 subbasins using a rainfall-runoff model. A water balance model was built and used to predict the amount of water deficit in the first half of 2016 given the initial conditions in December 2015. Under the scenario predicted by the GCM, more precipitation than nornal is expected and consequently, water supplies in the basin will be sufficient to meet water demands. However, if only 75% or 50% of expected precipitation occurs, water supply will be inadequate to meet the water demands in spite of considering the regional supply water.
| Translated title of the contribution | Seasonal Drought Damage Prediction Method Based On the Climate Forecasting Data in Geum River Basin |
|---|---|
| Original language | Korean |
| Pages (from-to) | 83-92 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | 한국방재학회논문집 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 2016 |