몽골 이동통신 시장의 확산 패턴 연구

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian mobile phone market. In particular,
we used a generalized diffusion model to explore the factors affecting market potenial.
Methods: We used three diffusion models to estimate the number of mobile subscribers in Mongolia. Based
on the Logistic model with the best fitness, we introduced time-varying market potential and explored the
influence of various independent variables such as GDP and inflation.
Results: Among the basic diffusion models, the Logistic model was the best in terms of estimation performance
and statistical significance. The estimation results of the Generalized Logistic model confirm that investment
in the telecommunication sector has a significant positive effect on market potential. The estimation of the
Generalized Logistic model effectively describes the continuous growth of the Mongolian telecommunications
market until recently.
Conclusion: We have analyzed the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian telecommunications market and found
that the amount of investment in the sector leads to the growth of the market size. This study is original
in terms of its subject - Mongolian telecommunications market and methodology - time-varying market
potential.