법인세수 추계를 위한 미시시뮬레이션모형의 개발

This paper focuses on the development of a microsimulation model for estimating corporate tax revenue, which plays a crucial role in maintaining fiscal sustainability and efficiently utilizing financial resources by providing accurate forecasts that underlie the determination of the fiscal budget during the process of budgeting. However, recent significant increases in the error rate of tax revenue estimation have highlighted the need for enhancements to traditional estimation methods. The occurrence of such substantial errors in tax revenue estimates not only undermines the stability and credibility of fiscal operations but also ultimately impairs fiscal sustainability and operational efficiency. To improve operational efficiency and enhance fiscal sustainability, diverse measures need to be taken to minimize the errors in tax revenue estimation.
Current corporate tax revenue forecasts are mainly based on macroeconomic variables, necessitating complementary forecasting processes that account for short－term shocks at the industry and corporate levels. In this study, we aim to develop a microsimulation model for corporate tax revenue, which supplements the macroeconomic－based corporate tax revenue forecasting model. However, due to limitations, the analysis focuses on the electronics and chemical industries, as these sectors collectively contribute to approximately 41.6% (KRW 9.6553 trillion) of the total corporate tax revenue as of 2021.
The proposed tax revenue forecasting model in this study is a micro model that emphasizes short－ term tax revenue prediction. An annual model is established, specifically focusing on estimating tax revenue for the current year. The forecasting process estimates the total tax revenue for the entire year, including the first half of the current year’s tax revenue, starting from the point where financial data for the first half of the current year is available. However, it’s important to note that the data utilized in this micro－level annual tax revenue prediction model is derived from corporate financial statements, and hence, it differs from actual corporate tax declarations.