분위회귀분석을 이용한 충주댐 유역 수문시계열의 미래 경향성 분석

The purpose of this study is to analyze future trend of hydrologic time series. We tried to analyze and compare the time series like precipitation, runoff, and storage volume series in Chungju Dam basin. Future daily weather series under climate change scenarios were collected, runoff and storage volume series were simulated using the SWAT as a rainfall-runoff model and the K-WEAP as a water balance model, Finally the selected hydrologic time series were monthly precipitation, runoff, and storage volume series. Eleven quantile regression lines corresponding to the quantiles (5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%) were estimated.
This study assessed trend in the series at 5% significance level. Most series were shown a increasing trend at the high quantiles and a decreasing trend at the low quantiles. The variability of hydrologic series was expected to be more greater in the future.