산업용 도시가스에 대한 수요함수 추정

Natural gas (NG) is utilized as an important input in the industrial production process. This paper attempts to estimate the industrial demand function for NG using the data over the period 1985-2015. The demand function of industrial NG can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy changes such as industrial natural gas price and forecasting the demand for industrial NG. To this end, we apply lagged dependent variable model, called as Koyck model. Moreover, we employ least median of squares as a robust approach to estimate the parameters of the industrial NG demand function. The results show that short-run and long-run price elasticities of the industrial NG demand are estimated to be –0.157 and –0.218, which are statistically significant at the 5% level, respectively. Both the short-run and long-run price elasticities portray that the demand for industrial NG is price-inelastic. However, short-run and long-run income elasticities of the industrial NG demand are estimated to be 2.440 and 3.391, which are statistically significant at the 1% level, respectively. The positive income elasticities of NG demand revealed that the demand for industrial NG is associated with normal goods and it is income-elastic.