상수관망의 신뢰도 산정을 위한 개별 관의 파괴 확률을 고려한 상수관 파괴모의 기법

Estimation of the reliability of a Water Distribution System(WDS) is important to understand the current operating condition of the system. Although, there is no widely accepted method to estimate the reliability of a WDS, the Jun's model which is based on the pipe failure simulation and its impact can be efficiently adopted for the purpose by the water utility. In the model, however, it is assumed that the pipe failure probability of each pipe is even and this assumption may bring unrealistic estimation of the reliability of a WDS since with this assumption, the actual pipe failure characteristics occurred in the WDS cannot be simulated. For this reason, in this study, we suggest a modified method of the Jun’s model to consider the individual pipe's failure probability.
The regression equation which is based on diameter and length of the pipe is used to estimate the failure probability of the individual pipe and then, the pipe failure simulation is performed. The suggested model is applied to a real WDS to compare the results of the two models. Comparing them, it is concluded that the failure probability of the individual pipe should be considered to estimate the accurate reliability of a WDS when it is estimated by the pipe failure simulation.