서울 아파트가격 급등 원인에 대한 통계적 검토 : 정부 대 시장

During the first four years of President Moon’s government since 2017, house prices in Seoul increased by 50%. One camp claims that the price spiral is due to speculation, and the other camp claims that it is due to an inadequate supply of housing. We analyze the housing price data of Seoul using multivariate time series models and find the existence of the repeated two-way interactions between the government’s policy responses and price hikes. The government’s policy measures instigate house price increase, which, in turn, feeds back into the government’s tougher response; a vicious cycle of self-fulfilling price spiral sets in. The data set comes from the first 32 months of Moon’s government and excludes the data of the pandemic period. Controlling for economic factors including financial liquidity, the two-way interaction explains most of the price increase of the study period. This result is robust against various formulations of the model, and the verdict is against the speculation camp.