시계열 자료를 이용한 지역난방 기반 열 수요함수 추정

The South Korean government intends to expand the supply of district heating systems, considering that they are more efficient in energy use and emitting less greenhouse gas and air pollutant than other heating systems. This paper attempts to estimate the demand function for residential heat through district heating system. To this end, quarterly series data for Korea District Heating Cooperation during the period 1988-2020 is used. Ordinal least squares and least absolute deviations were applied to estimating the heat demand function, respectively. In addition, a lagged dependent variable model was used to deal with the problem of autocorrelation that commonly appears in time series data. The results show that the short-run and long-run price elasticities are –0.6594 and –1.1568, respectively. The short-run and long-run income elasticities are estimated as 0.4757 and 0.8345, respectively. All estimated coefficients guarantee statistical significance at the 1% level. The results of this study provide information on the heat demand behavior of consumers using district heating system and can be usefully used to predict future demand for residential heat through district heating system.