제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안

Jung Sik Hong

doi:10.7737/JKORMS.2013.38.1.045

제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안

Translated title of the contribution: Constrained NLS Method for Long-term Forecasting with Short-term Demand Data of a New Product

Jung Sik Hong

Dept. of Industrial Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.

Translated title of the contribution	Constrained NLS Method for Long-term Forecasting with Short-term Demand Data of a New Product
Original language	Korean
Pages (from-to)	45-59
Number of pages	15
Journal	한국경영과학회지
Volume	38
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.7737/JKORMS.2013.38.1.045
State	Published - Mar 2013

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10.7737/JKORMS.2013.38.1.045

Cite this

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title = "제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안",

abstract = "A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.",

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