Abstract
To perform a long-term simulation which can be used for the estimation of annual runoff or other analyses, a long-term rainfall-runoff simulation relies on a continuous daily- or monthly-rainfall data. For this purpose, sufficient observed rainfall time series data must be used to satisfy the reliability of runoff analysis. In Korea, many rainfall stations have enough observed rainfall data for the reliable statistical analysis. However, as the characteristics of rainfall change due to urbanization and climate change, using all the rainfall data including older ones may average out their effects. Therefore, in this study, the year of the rainfall characteristic change was determined by the statistical analysis, and the long-term rainfall data was then generated by the Neyman-Scott model using the more recent rainfall data after the year of the rainfall characteristic change. For the observed rainfall data of 48 years(1961∼2008), the Year 1990 was determined as the year of the rainfall characteristic change. Based on this finding, the 100-year daily-rainfall time series were generated by the Neyman-Scott model using the rainfall data observed from 1990 to 2008. Finally, the simulated daily-rainfall time series were verified for the statistical reliability by comparing with the more recent observed data.
| Translated title of the contribution | Development of a Long-term Rainfall Generation Method for Long-term Runoff Simulations Considering the Recent Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics |
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| Original language | Korean |
| Pages (from-to) | 221-227 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | 한국방재학회논문집 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Aug 2011 |