코로나19 전후 환노출 특성변화 연구: 중국 제약업을 중심으로

This study aims to empirically analyze the characteristics and changes in exchange rate exposure of China's pharmaceutical industry before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on key indicators such as exchange rate exposure, lagged exchange rate exposure, and asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using data from pharmaceutical companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2016 to 2022, this research examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on corporate value, comparing the pre- and post-pandemic periods. The main findings are as follows: First, before the onset of COVID-19, exchange rate exposure in China’s pharmaceutical industry showed a negative correlation, indicating a decrease in corporate value when the yuan depreciated and an increase when it appreciated. However, following the pandemic, while overall exchange rate exposure increased due to a rise in exports, some firms exhibited a reduced rate of significant exposure. Second, the analysis of lagged exchange rate exposure revealed that both simultaneous and one-month lagged exposures were negative prior to the pandemic. Post-pandemic, however, lagged exposure turned positive, suggesting an initial overreaction to exchange rate fluctuations followed by adjustment. Third, with regard to asymmetric exchange rate exposure, the pre-pandemic negative exposure persisted; however, after the pandemic, positive exposure was observed during yuan depreciation, indicating increased corporate value. This suggests that the demand for COVID-19-related products helped maintain export levels, even with yuan appreciation. Lastly, the analysis of determinants for exchange rate exposure demonstrated that liquidity and debt ratios significantly impacted exchange rate exposure in the post-pandemic period, indicating that higher liquidity facilitates exchange risk management, while higher debt ratios increase vulnerability to exchange rate risks. By analyzing how exchange rate exposure characteristics in China’s pharmaceutical industry have evolved in response to the exceptional circumstances of COVID-19, this study provides important insights for exchange risk management and strategy formulation. The findings underscore the need to incorporate these considerations into financial decision-making and exchange risk management strategies, reaffirming the significance of such practices in global markets.