팬데믹 전후 항공기 기종에 따른 기재 활용 전략의 변화: Random Forest와 SHAP 분석을 중심으로: Random Forest와 SHAP 분석을 중심으로

This study investigates the changes in factors influencing aircraft utilization based on aircraft types during the pandemic period. The analysis categorizes the periods into three phases: pre-pandemic, during the pandemic, and post-pandemic, while the aircraft types are classified into two groups (C-class and E-class or higher). Utilizing SHAP and Random Forest methodologies, the study analyzes the importance of various factors for each group and examines the significance of differences in importance across the specified periods and aircraft types through group difference testing. The findings reveal that for C-class aircraft, the importance of the USD/KRW exchange rate and the lagging composite index was notably high before the pandemic. However, during the pandemic, there was a substantial surge in the significance of the JPY/KRW exchange rate, and post-pandemic, the importance of economic indicators increased. E-class or higher aircraft exhibited a similar trend, with a significant rise in the importance of the CNY/KRW exchange rate observed after the pandemic. The Kruskal-Wallis test confirmed that most average changes among the groups were not statistically significant, except for the C-class aircraft in the Random Forest analysis. This indicates that there were no substantial changes in the underlying factors between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods, suggesting that the impact of the pandemic on airline fleet utilization extends beyond short-term changes. Furthermore, the findings highlight the need for airlines to enhance their sensitivity to external environments and develop utilization strategies in volatile markets. Additionally, there is a possibility that long-term dependency on network strategies may become more pronounced than reliance on external factors like the pandemic. By providing an in-depth analysis of the pandemic's impact on aircraft utilization, this study contributes to the formulation of effective utilization strategies for airlines navigating an uncertain economic environment.