필리핀에서의 에너지 소비, 온실가스 배출, 경제성장 간의 인과성 분석

The paper investigates into the causal relationship among energy consumption, carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions and economic growth in the Philippines. It uses annual data covering the period 1965-2014. Its research method comprises such tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on error-correction model. The time series data of these three variables are all non-stationary, because each of them has its unit root. As their first-differenced data, however, appeared to be stationary, it was possible for the co-integration test to find out whether or not some co-integrations exist. According to finding, error correction model also could be used for causal relationship analysis. The characteristic feature of relations among the three variables, gained by doing this research, are classified into three types. The first one is, bi-directional long-run causality and strong causality from energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects CO2 emissions and that CO2 emissions also stimulate further energy consumption for long running and strong. Nevertheless, there is uni-directional, short run causality from CO2 emissions to energy consumption. The second is the type of uni-directional for long-run, short-run and strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption, signifying that economic growth can induce energy consumption but not vice versa. Lastly, the third is one of economic growth and CO2 emissions exists uni-directional short and long causal relationship from economic growth to CO2 emissions, also bi-directional strong causal relationship. Such a sort of bi-directional causality are found not only between energy consumption and CO2 emissions but also between economic growth and CO2 emissions. Whereas that of uni-directional causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth.