행위자기반모형(ABM)을 활용한 저출생 현상 탐색 : 영유아 교육·보육 관련 정책을 중심으로

Purpose: Through agent-based model, this study was to explore the orders and patterns in which low birth is intertwined with early childhood education and childcare policies, in that low birth is viewed as a phenomenon created by the dynamic interaction of individuals, groups, social culture, ecological phenomena, time, and space. Method: A conceptual model for low birth phenomenon in Korea was established centered on agent, system space, and external environment, based on the various qualitative and quantitative data accumulated through data analysis and characterization stages. The results were analyzed by simulating a total of 192 models using Netlogo. Results: First, model No. 65 as the result of base-run indicated that it could be expected that childbirth rate will rise slightly or will be maintained even after 30 years, if three kinds of policies are continuously implemented. Also, it is difficult with only one policy to overcome childbirth rate decline coefficient. Second, the results of the experimental setting were simulated focusing on the implementation of individual policies, the implementation of childcare support policies, and the implementation of direct and indirect tool policies. Through this, it is possible to specifically identify policy tools for birth rates by region. Conclusion: This study was discussed that direct and indirect policies to support pregnancy, birth, nurturing, and work-family balance should be implemented from an integrated and macroscopic perspective in the direction of improving the quality of life for individuals and communities.