TY - JOUR
T1 - A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments
AU - Winkler, Julie A.
AU - Thornsbury, Suzanne
AU - Artavia, Marco
AU - Chmielewski, Frank M.
AU - Kirschke, Dieter
AU - Lee, Sangjun
AU - Liszewska, Malgorzata
AU - Loveridge, Scott
AU - Tan, Pang Ning
AU - Zhong, Sharon
AU - Andresen, Jeffrey A.
AU - Black, Roy R.
AU - Kurlus, Robert
AU - Nizalov, Denys
AU - Olynk, Nicole
AU - Ustrnul, Zbigniew
AU - Zavalloni, Costanza
AU - Bisanz, Jeanne M.
AU - Bujdosó, Géza
AU - Fusina, Lesley
AU - Henniges, Yvonne
AU - Hilsendegen, Peter
AU - Lar, Katarzyna
AU - Malarzewski, Lukasz
AU - Moeller, Thordis
AU - Murmylo, Roman
AU - Niedzwiedz, Tadeusz
AU - Nizalova, Olena
AU - Prawiranata, Haryono
AU - Rothwell, Nikki
AU - van Ravensway, Jenni
AU - von Witzke, Harald
AU - Woods, Mollie
PY - 2010/12
Y1 - 2010/12
N2 - A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the "metauncertainty" arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.
AB - A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the "metauncertainty" arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78149496519&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1
DO - 10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:78149496519
SN - 0165-0009
VL - 103
SP - 445
EP - 470
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
IS - 3
ER -
