ARIMA 모형을 이용한 경마 매출액 예측

The horse racing is a kind of spectator sports, where the spectators participate in the horse racing by betting their money. Those money is the primary source of income of the horse racing. Revenue of the horse racing is important barometer to figure out the degree of activation of the corresponding sports. The horse racing spectators scale recorded the largest number of spectators in Korea. It's revenue was 78,554 billion during 2012, which was also the largest revenue of spectators sports in Korea. However, horse racing is classified as a gambling industry which should be seriously affected by government regulations and policies. In this paper, we predicted the horse racing revenue from 2013 to 2016 using an ARIMA model. We used time series data on Korea horse racing revenue during 1981 and 2012. Forecasting results show that the revenue of horse racing will be ￦7,816 billion in 2013 and ￦7,700 billion in 2016. The trend of horse racing in Korea turns out to be stagnant. It implies that the horse racing industry in Korea has reached a turning point. For continuous growth of horse racing industry in Korea, there needs having more concrete development plans like the conversion of understanding about horse racing, the augmentation of entertainment features to horse racing, and so on.