TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of non-stationarity on flood frequency analysis
T2 - Case study of the cheongmicheon watershed in South Korea
AU - Kim, Sang Ug
AU - Son, Minwoo
AU - Chung, Eun Sung
AU - Yu, Xiao
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 by the authors.
PY - 2018/5
Y1 - 2018/5
N2 - Due to global climate change, it is possible to experience the new trend of flood in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change on flood when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order to predict the future flood events, the frequency analysis is commonly applied. Traditional methods for flood frequency analysis are based on the assumption of stationarity, which is questionable under the climate change, although many techniques that are based on stationarity have been developed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and compare all of the corresponding effects of three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, and 8.5), two different frequency models (stationary and non-stationary), and two different frequency analysis procedures (rainfall frequency first approach and direct discharge approach). As a result, the design flood from the observed data by the stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach can be concluded the most reasonable. Thus, the design flood from the RCP 8.5 by the non-stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach should be carefully used for the establishment of flood prevention measure while considering climate change and uncertainty.
AB - Due to global climate change, it is possible to experience the new trend of flood in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change on flood when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order to predict the future flood events, the frequency analysis is commonly applied. Traditional methods for flood frequency analysis are based on the assumption of stationarity, which is questionable under the climate change, although many techniques that are based on stationarity have been developed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and compare all of the corresponding effects of three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, and 8.5), two different frequency models (stationary and non-stationary), and two different frequency analysis procedures (rainfall frequency first approach and direct discharge approach). As a result, the design flood from the observed data by the stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach can be concluded the most reasonable. Thus, the design flood from the RCP 8.5 by the non-stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach should be carefully used for the establishment of flood prevention measure while considering climate change and uncertainty.
KW - Climate change
KW - Flood frequency analysis
KW - Non-stationarity
KW - Uncertainty
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85046101960
U2 - 10.3390/su10051329
DO - 10.3390/su10051329
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85046101960
SN - 2071-1050
VL - 10
JO - Sustainability (Switzerland)
JF - Sustainability (Switzerland)
IS - 5
M1 - 1329
ER -
