LNG 복합화력발전의 공급가능용량 결정요인 분석: 인천시 소재 발전소 사례를 중심으로

The current rules governing South Korea’s electricity market stipulate that the available generation capacity of liquefied natural gas combined-cycle power plants is calculated one day in advance based solely on hourly temperature forecasts provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. However, the accurate estimation of available generation capacity is directly tied to both the profitability of power producers and the stable operation of the national power grid, underscoring the need for a more sophisticated estimation method. Accordingly, this study examines whether the current temperature-based approach is statistically appropriate and explores the potential for methodological improvement. In this analysis, three key factors were considered: ambient temperature, the pressure difference between the inlet and outlet of the condenser’s seawater cooling pipe, and the outlet temperature of sea water. The regression equations were estimated using the least squares method, a standard technique widely applied in the literature. The results indicate that while the estimation method based solely on ambient temperature is reasonably appropriate, there remains room for improvement through the inclusion of additional process variables. The results of this study are expected to serve as useful reference material for improving the current capacity estimation method.