TY - JOUR
T1 - Potential Impact of Climate Change on Residential Energy Consumption in Dhaka City
AU - Shourav, Mohammad Sabbir Ahmed
AU - Shahid, Shamsuddin
AU - Singh, Bachan
AU - Mohsenipour, Morteza
AU - Chung, Eun Sung
AU - Wang, Xiao Jun
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017, Springer International Publishing AG.
PY - 2018/4/1
Y1 - 2018/4/1
N2 - This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.
AB - This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.
KW - Climate change
KW - CMIP5
KW - Dhaka city
KW - Multiple regression analysis
KW - Residential energy consumption
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85025842173&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10666-017-9571-5
DO - 10.1007/s10666-017-9571-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85025842173
SN - 1420-2026
VL - 23
SP - 131
EP - 140
JO - Environmental Modeling and Assessment
JF - Environmental Modeling and Assessment
IS - 2
ER -