Predicting biogas production from organic waste through anaerobic co-digestion

Biogas is increasingly seen as a viable pathway to achieving carbon neutrality, and South Korea is actively promoting anaerobic co-digestion (Co-AD) as a means to boost biogas production. However, accurately estimating the project's economic feasibility and the potential biogas yield poses significant challenges. This study aims to develop a predictive model for estimating biogas production from the anaerobic digestion of various organic wastes. The model was constructed based on the theoretical biogas generation potential of each type of organic waste and their biodegradation rates, depending on their mixing ratios. To ensure the reliability of the model, the coefficients of determination (R-squared, R²) for indicating explanatory power and significant F values for statistical significance were analyzed, and the accuracy of the models was assessed by A measure that evaluates how well a predictive model predicted real-world data, the root mean square error (RMSE) by applying the models to data from 20 Co-AD plants in operation. The results showed that the estimation model was statistically significant.