Predicting the energy, economic, and environmental performance of next-generation photovoltaic technologies in residential buildings

While silicon-cell photovoltaics have long dominated the solar power industry, emerging PV technologies now challenge their dominance through improvements in efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability. In this study, we compare three emerging solar cell materials—perovskite, chalcogenide, and organic—with conventional silicon-cell PV. We evaluate four different rooftop solar panels installed on a typical single-family residential building in Detroit, MI, examining their energy, economic, and environmental performance to determine which PV technology is best positioned to support the implementation of NZEBs by 2050. A five-parameter logistic (5PL) function was used to evaluate solar technologies by investigating the efficiency of PV devices and total investment costs over time. The results indicate that perovskite has the potential to outperform silicon-cell PV in terms of energy (energy reduction rate of 30.66 % for perovskite and 25.51 % for silicon-cell PV in 2050) and economic perspectives (cost savings of $443.71 USD/year for perovskite and $369.26 USD/year for silicon-cell PV in 2050), owing to its remarkable light absorption capabilities and low-cost manufacturing process. However, the high embedded CO₂ emissions of perovskite solar cells (1020 gCO₂/kWh) have resulted in this technology exhibiting the longest environmental payback period (i.e., 6.81 years in 2050) among the four solar cell materials covered in this study. Meanwhile, the performance of chalcogenide PV was found to be the best from an environmental standpoint. In conclusion, the significance of this paper lies in helping building engineers and PV technicians predict which solar cell materials have the market potential to replace the dominance of silicon-cell PV and become the “system of the future” in the solar power industry.