Quantification of economic uncertainty for synthetic natural gas production in a H₂O permeable membrane reactor as simultaneous power-to-gas and CO₂ utilization technologies

Economic uncertainty analysis of employing a membrane reactor (MR) equipped with H₂O separation membranes for a synthetic natural gas (SNG) production as simultaneous power-to-gas and CO₂ utilization technologies was carried out. Based on previously reported reaction kinetics, process simulation models were created for a conventional packed-bed reactor (PBR) and an MR. Deterministic economic analysis showed the unit SNG production cost of 1.67 $ kgSNG⁻¹ in an MR compared to 1.82 $ kgSNG⁻¹ in a PBR for a SNG production capacity of 1000 kg d⁻¹, showing about 8% cost reductions in the MR. From sensitivity analysis, raw material and labor were identified as the key economic factors to affect a unit SNG production cost for all cases studied. Stochastic economic analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method provided better insights for economic-uncertainty associated with premature technology like a SNG production in an MR using H₂O separation membranes by presenting a wide range of SNG production costs and their probability.